Raging Right Wing Republican

For those of us who are politically informed, and therefore Republican.

Monday, October 23, 2006

Campaign finance model projects GOP win

Barron's Online:
Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three. . . .

Is our method reliable? It certainly has been in the past. Using it in the 2002 and 2004 congressional races, we bucked conventional wisdom and correctly predicted GOP gains both years.
The most noticeable effect of the Democratic Party's scandalmongering these past few weeks was to prevent the Republicans from peaking too soon. We've hit our lowest point; now we can only improve in the coming days. The pendulum has begun to swing back in the GOP's direction.

Once again, the Democrats come galloping in from stage left to rescue the GOP from its own folly. If we manage to hold both houses of Congress, we should probably send the Democrats a gift basket for upsetting the natural flow of the election cycle just when it had settled in to give them victory.

But it won't happen without conservatives turning out to pull the lever for the GOP.

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