Raging Right Wing Republican

For those of us who are politically informed, and therefore Republican.

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Super Tuesday II

We don't know yet what the results are going to be, but I think that at the end of the night, they will favor Hillary. If it does, I'm more and more convinced that this will go all the way to the convention.

It looks like Obama will have a clear delegate lead when you consider the pace of the campaign and his momentum, but mathematically, if you look at the potential delegates up for grabs, neither will be able to win enough to clinch the nomination. Hypothetically, there are enough delegates for either of them to become the nominee.

But realistically, because of proportional representation, every race will be one that splits the delegates closely. Even if Obama or Hillary won every remaining state with a comfortable lead, the other would get enough delegates from the contests to deny the opposition the magic number.

So the only way Obama or Hillary could become the nominee before the convention is if the other one drops out. The race will have to go to the convention, and the superdelegates. By then, I assume that Florida will have come into play and into Hillary's column.

Then Hillary will be able to argue that while Obama and her share a similar vote and delegate total, her votes are more representative of the Democrat party, being as they are from California, New York, Florida, and other big Blue states. Obama's strength is that he taps into many Red states, but they can easily be written off as "flyover country" that don't truly represent Democrats.

That would be all the cover the establishment would need to rally behind her, giving her the delegates to put her over the top. She will have managed to do the impossible and claw the Democrat nomination from the voters hands', setting her up for a general election duel with her counterpart John McCain, who managed to scrap his way to the top against unthinkable odds as well.

Or, Obama could deliver her a crushing defeat tonight that we will not have seen the likes of for generations and Hillary will pull out of the election in shameful defeat. Only time will tell.


Anonymous Niall Mac Dragard said...

Correction: Florida is NOT a blue state, except in areas like West Palm Beach and Key West.

Thu Mar 13, 05:32:00 PM EDT  

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