Raging Right Wing Republican

For those of us who are politically informed, and therefore Republican.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Why McCain will win PA (I hope)

Obama has always been a terrible closer. In the primaries, he held onto large, ten point leads against Clinton only to win or even lose by a point when the actual results came in. The national polls for this election and the last few have been terribly off, skewed in favor of Democrats. They are unreliable. I pay attention instead to the two campaigns' internal polling, since it's so important for them to have reliable information. Both McCain and Obama have been fighting in the Keystone state. Why would they be doing that if it was a guaranteed blowout for Obama? McCain has been shown closing in the last few days and he must be within reach.

Furthermore, in regards to the heavy turnout... black people always turn out heavily against Republicans. There's not much left to scrape out of the bottom of that barrel. The legendary "youth vote" is supposed to ride to the rescue of the Democrat candidate every year but never shows up.

Can Obama do better than Kerry did in PA? I'm not sure that is likely. Kerry carried voting blocs in 2004 easily that Obama has trouble with now. The blue-collar voter that turned out for Kerry rejected Obama in the primaries, giving the state to Hillary in a decisive win, and he hasn't done well for himself since then.

If McCain wins Pennsylvania, half of the election will be won. He'll be able to lose as many as four other states he needs and still win. If he loses Pennsylvania, then he'll have to pretty much go on a winning spree through the others to make up for it.

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